President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are betting the oil-price shock sparked by the Iran crisis will prove too short-lived to hurt them politically in November. However, traders and industry analysts see signs that US gasoline prices will stay painfully high long after any diplomatic breakthrough. Oil prices have surged as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply. US crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock. US diesel climbed above $5 a gallon, its highest since late 2022.
The disruptions stem largely from Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran took this action in response to US and Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28. The strait is a choke point through which roughly one-fifth of global oil normally flows. Trump has repeatedly said the higher energy costs represent a small price to pay for neutralizing Iran. On Tuesday, he again predicted energy prices would “drop like a rock” after the conflict ends.
Futures and Forecasts Point Higher
Oil futures, government forecasts, and seasonal summer demand point to elevated crude and gasoline prices persisting even if tensions ease, analysts warned. They noted that energy costs tend to fall slower than they rise. “It’s going to take time for those prices to come back down,” said Matt Smith, an analyst at energy consultant group Kpler.
The US Energy Information Administration this month sharply raised its outlook for crude and fuel prices. It now projects Brent crude will average about $79 a barrel in 2026, up 37 percent from a prior forecast of $58. US retail gasoline is expected to average $3.34 a gallon, up nearly 15 percent from its prior estimate. For 2027, the revised government forecasts put global crude prices about 22 percent higher and US gasoline prices roughly 8.4 percent higher than previous projections. These numbers underscore expectations that tighter supplies and geopolitical risks could keep energy costs elevated for years.
Market Signals Confirm Concerns
Oil futures markets tell a similar story, with contracts for delivery well into next year trading above levels seen earlier this year. US crude futures have averaged $68.10 a barrel so far this year. They are expected to average $85.25 for the remainder of 2026 and $71.35 in 2027, according to LSEG data. That compares with an average of about $64.70 a barrel in 2025.
Florence Schmit, an energy strategist at Rabobank, said any normalization would be gradual. “Even if they signed a peace deal tomorrow, it would take months before we see a full resumption of traffic and energy flows,” she said. She added that prices could ease to the mid-to-high $70s by year-end.
Drivers Feel Immediate Impact
US drivers are already feeling the impact at the pump. The national average for regular fuel climbed on Tuesday to $3.79 per gallon. That represents an increase from $3.54 a week ago and $2.92 a month ago, according to industry data. Prices are also up sharply from $3.08 a year ago. The rapid ascent has drawn attention from consumers already struggling with elevated costs for other necessities.
If fuel costs stay high through the summer, voters could blame Trump’s Republican Party for straining household budgets. They might punish its candidates in November’s midterm elections. Polls show voters remain worried about the cost of living. Affordability is the key issue for Democrats, who are within reach of winning a majority in the House of Representatives. They could also narrow Republicans’ margin of control in the Senate.
Political Messaging Challenge
Trump has long used social media and the White House megaphone to shape political narrative. However, gasoline prices are hard to spin, said Chris Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania. “It’s the most in-your-face reminder of affordability concerns,” Borick said. “It’s almost impossible to convince voters of some kind of contextual case that outweighs their emotional reaction.”
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers defended the administration’s position. She said Trump had been “right about everything,” and oil prices are no different. “Once the military objectives of Operation Epic Fury are completed and the Iranian terrorist regime is neutralized, oil and gas prices will drop rapidly,” Rogers said. “Potentially even lower than before the strikes began.”
Administration Actions So Far
Since the conflict began on February 28, Trump has reviewed a range of options to ease price pressure. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has taken a lead role in the effort, Reuters has reported. The administration has already taken several steps to blunt the supply shock and stabilize global markets. These include easing certain sanctions on Russian energy exports to bring additional crude to the market. The US has also joined allied nations in a historic, coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
The US release of roughly 200 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve is expected to occur over several months. This extended timeline limits its immediate impact on prices. The reserve releases aim to bridge supply gaps until normal market functioning returns. However, analysts question whether even this massive intervention can fully offset the loss of Hormuz transit volumes.
Summer Driving Season Approaches
The timing of the price surge compounds its political impact. The summer driving season traditionally sees increased gasoline demand as Americans take vacations and road trips. Higher prices during this period directly affect household budgets and leisure plans. The combination of seasonal demand and supply disruption could push prices even higher in coming months.
Retailers pass wholesale price increases to consumers relatively quickly. However, they tend to delay passing on decreases when wholesale prices fall. This asymmetric pricing behavior means consumers feel the pain of rising markets immediately but benefit from falling markets only gradually. The phenomenon, sometimes called “rockets and feathers,” could prolong the period of elevated US gasoline prices even after underlying crude costs moderate.
Global Context
The US price situation reflects broader global energy market dynamics. The Strait of Hormuz closure affects all oil-importing nations, though impacts vary by region. Asian economies heavily reliant on Gulf crude face particularly acute challenges. European nations have alternative supply sources but still feel the effects through higher global benchmark prices.
The coordinated strategic reserve release represents an unprecedented international response. Previous releases occurred during specific supply disruptions like hurricanes or pipeline outages. The current action involves multiple nations acting in concert to address a geopolitical supply shock. Its effectiveness will provide lessons for future energy security planning. However, for American drivers facing $3.79 gallon gasoline, the immediate concern remains how long US gasoline prices will stay painfully high.
